Misery index - Like Carter’s days, misery may decide presidency
July 08, 2012 12:01 AM | 1475 views | 10 10 comments | 10 10 recommendations | email to a friend | print
The nation’s economy is still sluggish three years after the Great Recession officially ended, and the political implications are tremendous. What happens in the economy will have a major impact on the presidential election and may well determine whether President Obama wins a second term.

Last month employment increased by only 80,000 jobs for the third consecutive month of less than expected hiring — and one-third of the new jobs were temporary. The unemployment rate was stuck at 8.2 percent.

The anemic job growth in the second quarter, averaging 75,000 jobs a month, was only one-third of the 226,000 a month created in the first quarter, again signaling that this recovery is in trouble. Indeed, for 13 million Americans who are out of work, the recession has not ended, nor will it until they can find jobs.

It’s a disturbing sign that factory employment slowed sharply in the second quarter versus the first quarter and retailers cut back on hiring, as did transportation companies and government. Manufacturing added another 11,000 jobs for the ninth month of increased hiring.

The outlook is not encouraging. As the New York Times put it, “It is increasingly apparent what the economy will look like when President Obama faces voters in November: pretty much what it looks like today.” In the face of the latest jobs numbers, the stronger-growth expectations of economists have been lowered. As a Conference Board analyst described it: “The economy has no forward momentum and little help from monetary or fiscal policy.”

The June jobs report sent stock markets sharply lower Friday with the Dow Jones industrial average losing 124 points. Consumer confidence is also down, reflecting the concern about where this economy is going. The question is: will it get worse before it gets better? The Federal Reserve last month downgraded its outlook to 1.9 percent to 2.4 percent growth in the economy this year and little hope for improvement in the jobless rate.

All this translates into trouble for President Obama, whose job performance is getting low marks. Sixty-three percent of Americans polled by Rasmussen Reports last week said the country is heading in the wrong direction. Another poll by Associated Press-Gfk found that more than 50 percent of those surveyed disapproved of how Obama is handling the economy.

Obama has again blamed predecessors for the economic woes and asked voters to take the long view. The presumptive Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, declared the 8.2 unemployment rate was “unacceptably high” and Obama’s policies “have clearly not been successful … .in reigniting this economy and putting people back to work.”

Despite the gloomy economic picture and Obama’s falling poll numbers, it’s not time for Republicans to start their victory dance. There are still four months to go before the election and anything can happen. However, Romney hit the nail on the head when he said: “American families are struggling. There is a lot of misery in America today.”

And as in the days of former President Jimmy Carter, the misery index will go a long way in determining who wins the presidential election.
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good grief
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July 11, 2012
Am I better off now than four years ago? Before Bush left office I saw one quarter of my retirement savings go up in smoke, thanks to the banks and Wall Street collapse. I was lucky many people lost half. Under Obama I have been able to replace my losses. Now the Republicans want to go back to the same thing that created this mess in the first place!
J Balfour
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July 11, 2012
Right wingers just can't face the truth - Bush's UNFUNDED tax cuts, two wars and a medicare drug program, plus the right wing deregulation of the banks caused the worst economy since the Great Depression. Bush had a surplus and he blew it, just like he did his daddy's money in his failed businesses.
Shawntella Risen
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July 10, 2012
I aint so misrabull.. My Peach Card is still workin, In a new Rental Crib, Social Security disability now in place...life is grand..

Obama 2012
dustoff
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July 09, 2012
The Prez made a statement the other week to the press saying that ecomomy was improving. What rock does he have his head under.

I retired in 2005, and have not seen a raise in my retirement, but my health insurance has gone up each year. And my CO-pay jumped this year to double what it was.

My home appraisal had decreased 34% but my house taxes have gone up 21%. My utility cost have increased 18%. Gas, well you all know about that.

Groceries are up due to fuel cost.

Sales tax will probably go up after the TIA vote in July. And now the BOE is planning on trying to pull off another SPLOST.

Things might look rosey from the balcony of the White House but down here with the common folks it sure does not look good.
J Balfour
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July 11, 2012
House, care, health - all insurance goes up every year because the companies have to impress their investors with higher dividends.

Utilities and gas - same issues - more profits for the investors.

Groceries - well, they have to pass on the costs and please their investors with higher dividends.

as for your property tax, did you re-elect the clowns that raised your taxes in this heavily republican state,? Well, then you got what you deserved.
JA Bolton
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July 11, 2012
If you are upset abut rising health insurance, i strong suggest you read Deadly Spin, by Wendell Potter, a former CIGNA insider who really lays it on the line. Anyone who cares about health care needs to read this.
Take America Back
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July 09, 2012
@reagna rules

Of course you conveniently don't mention how the DEMOCRAT controlled Senate has obstructed every single piece of legislation that the House has passed in an effort to help Americans out of the economic misery created by Obama.
regna rules
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July 11, 2012
@Take America Back, and exactly what legislation is that other than thirty one votes to repeal the Affordable Care Act and name Post Offices after Ronald Reagan.
reagna rules
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July 08, 2012
Congress has done an excellent job of blocking anything that may improve the economy or ease unemployment. This gives the Republicans something to run on in November. Republicans know that there is only one economic solution. It has been their mantra since Harding and Hoover. Cut taxes and cut regulations, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, just look how well it worked under George W. Bush. If that doesn't work you have North Korea, Iran and Syria that are just asking to be attacked. Nothing like a few good wars to boost the economy.
rjsnh
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July 08, 2012
True
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